Napkin Analysis 0.13.7

[torino2dc]

Gents this is going to have to be a brisk one. Due to a high-volume travel schedule this summer I haven't been able to lavish the usual amount of depth on the prose and visuals of this balance change analysis. That shouldn't stop you from having at least something to chew on (what kind of monster would let part of a balance change go uncommented?), which is why we're going to have to make due with a somewhat breezier format -- a.k.a. I'm not going to break myself in half to underline every statement with a custom diagram. If any of my assertions don't make any sense, please feel free to comment on them and I will do my best to fill in the context at a later point. As always, I hope you enjoy.  

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I-56 (T8)
Hydrophone consumable charges increased: 1 to 4

Let's get the big picture evaluation out of the way first: this buff is a small quality of life improvement that will have no perceptible influence on how it feels to play against this submarine. This is a good thing. For one, subs as a class are still unfinished in terms of their major mechanics, so we wouldn't want the balance team to be throwing haymakers. More importantly, fixing small annoyances shows that the developer is still paying attention at a very granular level, which isn't self-evident given the mountain of content that the game has become.

Alert readers might be wondering why this buff was even necessary in the first place -- a submarine with only one hydrophone charge? In order to answer the question we're going to need to revisit how the hydrophone used to work and what role the I-56 has among subs.

A Brief History of Hydrophonics

Before the submarine rework in 0.13.1, the hydrophone was the strongest asymmetric information-gathering tool available to submarines. Once activated, it would flash in intervals the silhouettes of all unspotted enemy surface ships within its radius for ~30s, allowing the captain to ping targets, line up torpedoes, or evade capture from pursuers. Crucially, the targets were never informed when they were being hydrophoned, meaning that non-sub-enjoyers would often find themselves being taken advantage of by a consumable that was invisible to them. The ships that suffered the most from this unfair interaction were the destroyers, since the water-listening device nullified their otherwise excellent stealth. In combination with the ability to shotgun from close range, the hydrophone allowed good submarine players to dominate their DD counterparts. 

After the rework, the hydrophone will flash the unspotted enemy silhouettes only once before going on cooldown. On the one hand, this change has greatly reduced the ability for the submarine to line up pings or attacks based on the information gained -- it is mostly a situational awareness tool used to double-check that the surroundings are safe to surface. Combined with the minimum range of submarine torpedoes being raised to 3km, the hydrophone rework has flipped the power dynamic between subs and DDs. On the other hand, the enemy is still not informed of the fact that they have been lit, which still leads to difficult-to-comprehend situations which make the game seem arbitrary and unfair. It also has relegated a once interesting consumable that offered smart captains lots of interesting gameplay options to a very boring niche. One can only hope that in the next sub rework (probably 2045 at the earliest), the developer finds a happy place for the once mighty hydrophone.

Big Game Hunter Sub

So why did the I-56 only have one hydrophone charge base? Likely because the developer envisioned the Japanese premium submarine as a 'big game hunter' that was only interested in taking down cruisers and battleships. To that end, she was given a beef-tastic 24,200hp¹ and six bow-mounted torps that (in their dumb-fire configuration) do 16,367 damage apiece and reload in 35 seconds. Doing the math that works out to a torpedo DPM of 168k -- for comparison one of Tier 8's best torpedo boats, the Kagerō, only has a torpedo DPM of 89k.² Devastating as those torps may be against big targets, they are even more lethal against destroyers and other submarines. This is why the I-56 wasn't given submarine surveillance, and only had one base charge of the camo-nullifying hydrophone: it needed to have a pronounced information-gathering weakness against the small botes.³ 

Post 0.13.1 submarine re-work, the I-56 sits in an awkward place. Her strengths remain, even if they've been somewhat dulled by the 3km shot-gunning minimum. Thanks to new durability modules and a buffed turning circle, she's as hard to subdue as ever. Her weaknesses, however, have been largely legislated away:

• Lacking hydrophones doesn't matter when every sub's hydrophone has been gutted. 
• Lacking sub surveillance matters less when the 3km torp minimum has made sub vs. sub combat largely irrelevant. 
• Being large and un-maneuverable is also less of a drawback when sub vs. sub combat isn't as prominent. 

The I-56 is a boat that was intended to push the extremes of what the class could do. Unfortunately, WG never laid a solid enough foundation for the submarine class, and the Japanese premium is now adrift in the shifting sands. Time will tell whether the I-56 will ever get back to solid ground.

Will the buffs make a difference?

From the perspective of the I-56 player, having three extra 'situational awareness' pings definitely makes life less aggravating, especially considering that their submarine is the largest and easiest for other subs and DDs to detect. From the perspective of the 'big game' that the I-56 traditionally likes to hunt, the buff will hardly be noticeable since it didn't rely on the hydrophone to track its prey to begin with. 

Conclusion

Tiny quality of life buff that doesn't affect the ship's power level -- good to see the balancing team still paying attention to the little things.

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Hector (T9)
Replaced Repair Party with Specialized Repair Teams (3)

For those who have never had the dubious privilege of spending time with the Hector, she is the unfortunate cross between a Colbert and a Uganda. Just as the Colbert, the Hector is festooned with destroyer-caliber turrets that go much pew pew (though they cycle much slower than the infamous French firehose); like the Uganda, she has a clunky British light cruiser hull that uses a crawl-smoke as her primary survival tool. Added to the mix is a prodigious 4x4 12km single-fire torpedo suite that allows a full-concealment Hector to comfortably stealth-torp. So to summarize, we have top-three-in-tier HE DPM, crawl smoke and hydro, as well as a bucket-full of long range fish -- on paper the Hector should be an absolute force.

In practice, the Hector suffers from many of the same classic CLAA design problems that afflict the Pan-Asian super-light cruiser line, plus a couple new ones thrown in for flavor:

• Captain Pressure. Hector captains are put in position where they can either try to keep their ship alive (Concealment Expert, Superintendent, Survivability Expert, RPF), or take fun skills that improve damage output (torpedo skills, Demo Expert, IFHE, Heavy HE, Adrenalin Rush).
• Smoke Reliance. Even more so than Pan-Asian CLAAs, the Hector's crawl smoke is easy to disrupt. Blind fire is particularly effective, since the ship must -- by definition -- be sitting in the center of its smoke puff. Blind submarine pings and well-fanned dumb torpedoes are also an easy way to get the Hector to accelerate beyond the 12.5kt crawl maximum.
• Matchup vs. Cruisers. It is shorter to list the cruisers in the Hector's matchmaking range that don't have some sort of advantage over her. To begin with there is 229mm+ AP overmatching her 16mm extremities, followed by cruisers' 25mm armor bouncing her HE (unless a costly investment in IFHE is made). Tools such as radar, long range hydro, and Dutch airstrikes are also very good at spoiling a good smoke camp.    
• Matchup vs. Submarines. The underwater bois don't abuse the Hector in the same way they would do a Pan-Asian super-light, due to the fact that the Commonwealth ship has a 3km self-defense hydro and built-in propulsion mod. However, the Hector's roll-off depth charges mean she doesn't represent a threat to most smart sub players. Furthermore, blind-pinging crawl smokes is much easier than finding a ship in a regular smoke, and once the Hector is out of her polluted comfort zone she is extremely vulnerable.

All in all, it is not surprising that the Hector has one of the lowest 60-day play-rates of any Tier 9 cruiser according to tomato.gg.⁴ But for a brave group of Aussies showing the NA server what the Hector can do, she also has the one of the worst winrate differentials of her tier. Some help was clearly in order. 

Will the buffs make a difference?

HOLY SWEET JEBUS YES. Specialized Repair Teams is one of the best consumables in the game, period. All by itself, the super-heal will allow the Hector to be used in a far more aggressive manner. A veteran player will be much more willing to take 1v1 fights with bigger ships or groups of destroyers knowing that they have a "dry-dock-in-a-can"⁵ to keep them afloat. It also means that a catching a nasty AP salvo doesn't necessarily consign the Hector to crawling under a rock for the remainder of the match. 

Outside of the match, having a super-heal takes a lot of pressure off the captain build. Usually super-heal ships don't get to use all four heals, so if a player is willing to live with only three smokes, they can skip Superintendent. Although Survivability Expert is still probably a good idea to have,⁶ a full dakka build can probably forgo the extra 4050hp for some more fire power. Even Concealment Expert is no longer hard-mandatory if the player is good enough to work around the resulting 10.4km stealth. All of those points can be invested in main battery and/or torpedo skills. In other words, the Hector now has options.⁷

Conclusion

Huge buff breathes new life into forgotten Research Bureau ship. Two massive thumbs up.

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Buffalo (T9)
Main battery reload time reduced: 11s -> 10s
Main battery range increased: Stock [14.1km -> 14,4km], Upgraded [15.6km -> 15.8km]
Rudder shift increased: Stock [15.7s -> 11,2s], Upgraded [11.2s -> 8.4s]

Let's call a spud a spud: the Buffalo was and is a mistake. She is a paper AB-XY⁸ cruiser that has no place in a tech tree that is centered around built-in-steel AB-X cruisers like New Orleans, Baltimore, and Des Moines. She was shoe-horned into the game during the 0.7.5 American cruiser split and has been confounding beginners ever since. After spending Tier 7 and Tier 8 practicing how to play nose-in next to islands, all of a sudden the Tier 9 requires players to learn how to kite in an American heavy cruiser. Alternatively, they could continue ignoring the rear turret(s) and spend the longest grind of the tree with half the intended DPM. Both situations are no fun, which is why the Buffalo has languished at the bottom of the T9 cruiser statistics⁹ for most of her existence despite several buffs.   

However, as much as I would like to spend the rest of this section helping the lost Buffalo find a happy home in her own AB-XY heavy cruiser tech tree, we are obligated to evaluated the balance changes at face value. Here is what sticks out:

• Stock Relief. One of the design-holdovers from World of Tanks was the use of painfully bad stock modules to create a spending loop for Free XP. This too was the case for the first few years of World of Warships,¹⁰ at least until WG pivoted to using high tier pseudo-premiums as FXP-sinks. Later they came up with the Research Bureau, a devilishly effective way to make players part with their FXP by way of infinite tech tree re-grinds. Long story short, having the stock modules be dramatically worse than their fully upgraded counterparts is an antiquated design philosophy that should be buried. The buffs to Buffalo's stock range and rudder shift will be much appreciated by those players who can't afford to skip parts of the grind. More of the same, please. 
• Reload. It is likely no coincidence that the reload has been lowered to same level as the Baltimore. Since so many players are going to play the Buffalo like an AB-X cruiser, the least we can do is make her forward firepower adequate. It's not like a 10% buff radically changes her place in the DPM rankings -- Buffalo was comfortably the highest damage output heavy cruiser at T9, and now has a slightly larger gap to second place (see chart below).
• Range. Adding 200m is only significant in that it will now have the same range as a Baltimore and a Des Moines. Of course, the real giga-chads will use the multiplicative properties of Range Mod and Spotter Plane to farm out to a hitherto unseen 22km instead of the weak-sauce 21.6km it has been until now. 
• Rudder. This feels like the balancing team is holding up a giant sign to bad Buffalo pilots: DON'T RUN RUDDER MOD. Veteran players already run propulsion mod, so they get to profit from a 25% improvement to one of the ship's big weaknesses. This one will definitely make kiting more comfortable, and as such is the most significant out of all the buffs.

Spoiler

Comparison of T9 Cruiser HE DPM

0.13.7 Buffalo in green, 0.13.6 Buffalo in red.

While all of these improvements are welcome, I can't help but get the feeling that we're being sold a bill of goods. It's as if we're being told: "See guys the Buffalo is totally a great fit for the USN heavy cruiser tech tree at Tier 9! She can totally play nose-in against an island like the rest of them! She even has the same range as Baltimore and Des Moines!" 

Will the buffs make a difference?

Depends what player group we're talking about. Beginners will benefit from an easier stock experience as well as the option to play nose-in more effectively. Experienced players who know how and when to kite will enjoy the improved rudder shift as well as the higher DPM. For those stuck in the middle, who know enough not to play Buffalo against a rock but not how to play a somewhat fragile heavy cruiser in while keeping all 12 guns cycling, the buffs do very little. My prediction is that her overall performance won't change much.

Conclusion

One thumb up for making the stock experience less gruesome. Two thumbs down for putting lipstick on a buffalo and continuing to pretend that it belongs in the USN heavy cruiser tech tree.

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Saint-Louis (T9)
Main battery HE shell damage increased: 2800 -> 3000
Main battery HE fire chance increased: 15% -> 17%

The Saint-Louis is a remarkable testament to the ship design and balancing quality seen in the early years of World of Warships. Introduced in the early Cretaceous period update 0.6.4 (spring 2017), she has only seen one significant change (the addition of Main Battery Reload Booster in 0.7.8) in her entire career to this date. As a platform, her strengths remain the same: longest main battery range among tech tree T9 cruisers, highest top speed among T9 tech tree cruiser when her engine boost is active, a trolly spaced-armor scheme that can swallow its fair share of AP shells, as well as powerful late game tools (MBRB, torpedoes, engine boost, hydro).

Unfortunately, the world around the Saint-Louis has changed considerably since her server debut. Where at launch she was one of six (!) cruisers at her tier, at time of writing she is one of thirty-nine. There used to be zero ships at Tier 9 with guns larger than 203mm, now there are eighteen. And where there used to be only four T9 cruisers with more hit points than her modest 40.9k, there are now thirty-one. There is a BMI (Boat Massiveness Index) crisis that has been brewing folks; hit point inflation is real.

Eleven is much bigger than nine

Most damaging of all has been the introduction of Tier 11. I've already discussed how this misguided decision devalued the previous end-game progression, but I haven't touched on how it has stuck a fork in Tier 9. Older players will remember that Tier 9 used to consistently be top tier as the matchmaker shoveled all the 10s into single-tier battles. This was a good deal for enjoyers of the penultimate tier because it meant a relatively stress-free journey through the longest part of the XP-grind. It also meant that Tier 9 premium ships had a level attractiveness commensurate to their $70+ price tag -- they were a good way to blow off steam and earn a lot of credits.¹¹ Even if you landed in a T10 match it wasn't the end of the world.

These days there is a distinct chance that every high tier match has a couple T11 superships sprinkled in for your pleasure. The power-level disparity between a Tier 9 and a Tier 11 is arguably the worst in the game: between them, the starred battleships and starred cruisers have absurd levels of accuracy, range, shell count, overmatch, burst fire, survivability, funny buttons -- none of which require a particularly high level of skill to deploy. The result is that a Tier 9 player in a -2 match must play near perfectly to stay on the board, while a Maine can aim poorly and still cripple a Saint-Louis. Throw enough shells at the wall and some will stick; call it stochastic player improvement. 

Will the buffs make a difference?

Yes and no. Quantitively, a 13% increase to the Saint Louis' base fire chance will undoubtedly make a difference, for two reasons. One, T11 battleships are particularly vulnerable to fire damage since it is a percentage of their base HP per tick, but their built-in 57% fire resistance can make lighting one quite a frustration. And secondly, the French heavy cruisers particularly benefit from an increase in fire chance due to their ability to respond to an unwise DCP with a MBRB. As can be seen in the chart below, the buff pushes the Saint-Louis towards the ranks of the elite fire-starters among Tier 9 cruisers.

Spoiler

Fires Per Minute among Tier 9 Cruisers

0.13.7 Saint-Louis in green, 0.13.6 Saint-Louis in Red

In comparison to the fire chance buff, the increase in HE alpha will likely make little difference. While the 7% bump in damage has moved the Saint-Louis a couple places up the HE DPM board (see chart below), she is still quite a ways away from the true damage monsters of Tier 9. It is, however, commendable that the balance team chose the route of improving shell damage rather than the reload (like they did in Mir Korabley); this way each shot remains more meaningful and the use of the Reload Booster is a more obvious departure from the regular firing cycle.

Spoiler

HE DPM among Tier 9 Cruisers

0.13.7 Saint-Louis in green, 0.13.6 Saint-Louis in Red

In the big picture, however, the Saint-Louis remains trapped by forces larger than herself and there is very little that she can do about it. She will continue to get matched against T9 cruisers that have half again as many hit points and can play as pseudo-battleships. She will continue to suffer in T11 matches against ships she was never really balanced to fight against that can brush her aside with a careless salvo. A buff to her stealth or her survivability would have been much more welcome.¹²

Conclusion

Brave little French cruiser receives welcome fire-breathing buff, will still struggle against matchmaking that has long moved past her. 

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Henri IV (T10)
Engine parameters improved. They are now similar to those of the majority of cruisers of her Tier. 

It doesn't take much to make a monster. Sometimes the most seemingly innocuous detail can cause a host of knock-on problems. In the case of the infamous Henri IV, the trouble started at the drawing board when WG gave her an armor layout that was too efficient for its own good (see image below). Paired with the trademark powerful French engine boost and great main battery range, it allowed the HIV (a more apt nickname could hardly be conceived) to HE farm its targets with relative impunity; what few shells weren't juked by judicious stabs of acceleration were swallowed up by the black-hole spaced-armor scheme.

Spoiler

Comparison of X-turret citadel protection in high tier French heavy cruisers

Unlike the Charles Martel and the Saint-Louis, the Henri IV does not have a "weakspot" underneath the rear turret where the citadel steps out and is unprotected by spaced armor. This is why the T8 and the T9 cannot just sit in one position to farm -- eventually a lucky shot will find the exposed piece of citadel. The Henri IV, by contrast has a much more forgiving scheme with no weakspot, meaning she can much more confidently prop juke in place, knowing that a citadel hit is highly unlikely.

After two-and-a-half years of persistent complaints from the player base -- especially from traumatized comp players who had to play the Henri's favorite Stalingrad-shaped snack -- the nerf hammer crashed down. The French heavy cruiser had her time to reach full speed axed from 40s to 70s and her time to reach full reverse speed murdered from 20s to 60s. All of a sudden, the Henri IV felt like she had been drowned in molasses. The problem was officially deemed to have been fixed, but anyone who played the unfortunate French boat since the nerf will tell you that the disease was eliminated by killing the patient. 

L'Ingrédient Secret des Croiseurs Lourds Français

The Henri IV engine dismemberment certainly belongs in the Hall of Fame of Hamfisted Nerfs^TM -- up there with the unspeakable acts performed upon the Yueyang in 0.7.11 and the Kremlin AA-health nerf that has yet to be undone. What was particularly frustrating about the Henri IV nerf is that it was seemingly made in complete ignorance of how French heavy cruisers generate value for their team. From an uninformed viewpoint, it might appear like their main job is to do damage. Not so. If that were true then why not just play a ship with almost double the HE DPM, like the Des Moines?

The reason is that French CAs are very good at drawing and avoiding enemy fire. Their high main battery range and engine boost forces enemies to take chancy shots that can be easily dodged by applying the brakes or flooring the gas pedal. When a shot does find its mark, as long as the ship is at an angle, the odds are good that the spaced-armor will swallow the worst of the damage. This asymmetry between the number of shots fired in their direction and the amount of damage received makes the Henri IV line (when played correctly) a great team player. It just happens not to look that way to most people because they equate team play with being near caps. 

So what happened when one of the three key ingredients for safely drawing fire was knee-capped? Setting aside the obvious answer --playing a ship that feels like it's been dunked in pitch is super unfun -- it meant that the Henri IV couldn't do its job properly anymore. Instead of drawing fire in open water, captains were incentivized to farm from cover, where the ship's 141k base HE DPM wasn't going to win many prizes. And when there isn't an annoying Frenchie thumbing its nose at the enemies in open water to bait shots, the red team will find something else to shoot, which they will almost certainly have a much higher chance of hitting. Thus, almost imperceptibly, the match will start get away from cover-firing Henri IV and the captain will almost certainly blame their team. But the reality is, mon ami, you were supposed to be out there getting shot at.

Will the buffs make a difference?

Almost certainly yes, but it is hard to predict the extent. This is because propulsion and acceleration in World of Warships are not as extensively documented as, say, gunnery or armor. We know there are several ship parameters that affect acceleration, including a 'full speed ahead time' and 'full speed reverse time' as well as values for engine power and overall tonnage (see image below). From what I can tell, the former two values are going to be returned to the cruiser-standard 40s and 20s, respectively. How much that changes the acceleration curve, especially when factoring in things like Engine Boost, Propulsion Mod and Speed Flags, remains to be seen.¹³ At the very least, we can say that the Henri IV can go back to doing her job with the tools she was intended to have.  

Spoiler

Comparison of Hindenburg and Henri IV engine parameters on gamemodels3d.com

My guess is that the two values in red will be reset to 40s and 20s respectively.

Conclusion

Balance team reverses one of the all-time boneheaded buffs -- better late than never.

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Tromp (T10)
HE Bomb Airstrike range increased: 10km -> 12km

Like with their world famous ovens, I am all in favor of Dutch Airstrikes as long as I am not caught beneath one. Unpopular though they generally are, I believe they fulfill a hygienic function within the Random battle meta by punishing brainless camping. As is inevitably the case in a game where using terrain and smoke cover are core gameplay mechanics, certain ships with certain abilities (e.g. a Des Moines against an island or a Smolensk in smoke) become too efficient at exploiting these asymmetries. While it is fine for these setups to be used in a majority of matches, it becomes a problem when these positions are strong every. single. time. A player should have to study the enemy team-list and determine dynamically whether a position is viable. 

That said, there is a difference between counter-play and obnoxious counter-play. Full telephone-build Gouden Leeuw,¹⁴ with one of her three 13km airdrops ready every 51 seconds definitely belongs to the latter. The insanity of the Royal Dutch Air Mail has gone so far as to create a new Clan Battles archetype: Orange Wall. It's like Russian Wall except that most of the action lands on your head. On the Asia server, the 60-day tomato.gg statistics show the Gouden to be the second-most played T10 cruiser.¹⁵ Do we really need more of this?

There are two ways to look at that question. One would be to say the Tromp is a destroyer and should be evaluated as such; the overlap with the Dutch heavy cruisers is almost non-existent barring the ability to call for On-Demand-Sky-Gifts^TM. The other would be to argue that experientially, being on the receiving end of Dutch Aerial Charity feels the same no matter which ship called in the strike; the debate is whether, on aggregate, there should be more bomblets at longer ranges or not. I will try to look at both sides of the question as best I can.

Tromp the Destroyer

As destroyers go, the Tromp isn't faring terribly well. Her 60-Day winrate differentials are bottom-3-ish across all three servers,¹⁶ meaning that she is tanking her players' ability to win matches far more than the average T10 DD. Crucially, however, her average damage, frags, and survival rate are more towards the middle of the pack. We've seen this pattern before with other damage-dealing support ships -- especially those that rely on fires. They can generate decent numbers in every category except the one that matters most, winning. Looking at her tools, it isn't too surprising that the Tromp struggles more than many DDs to create win conditions:

• Survivability. The Tromp has a decent hitpoint pool at 24,500. But beyond that there is little to help her: no armor, no repair party, only a short speed boost to (maybe) help her juke and a DefAA to mildly annoy a CV. 
• Vision Control. The 5.9km maximum stealth is usable and allows her to dodge many of the bigger DDs. Her vision control tools end there though, as she lacks smoke, radar, or hydro. 
• Map Control. Normally this is where torpedo walls and smoke farming come in handy, but the Tromp only has one set of three torpedoes per side -- not really enough to stop an enemy push in its tracks. The airdrop is good for pressuring entrenched positions, but the lack of bomb penetration (only 20mm) means she must rely on allies to finish digging out the target. 
• Matchups vs. DDs. Tromp lacks the speed and detect to catch the destroyers she can reliably out-gun. Against the many DPM monsters at her tier, the 148k base HE DPM is not much of a threat. Airdrops can pressure DD smokes and force enemy DDs to dodge in ways they might not want to, but it is not a very consistent tactic.

So we have a problem: the Tromp struggles to win matches because the DD on the enemy team will likely have better tools to do its job. In response, the balance team proposes: increase the airdrop range from 10km -> 12km. If the latter doesn't seem to you like a solution to the former, then you're not alone. The best explanation I can come up with is that by pushing the airdrop range deeper into enemy territory, it allows the Tromp to start pressuring the red team earlier in the match. Perhaps a ship that is moving into a camping position can be dissuaded if it sees that it will be getting Dutch love all game. But that's a lot of slender conditionals, not a solid improvement in her ability to win matches. 

Spoiler

A better approach might have been to increase the Tromp's side armor to 25mm, similar to the Elbing line. This would increase her survivability in DD fights to compensate for her lackluster DPM without changing her matchups against cruisers or battleships.

Tromp as Distributor of Gifts

The other side of the question posed above is whether we need more ships with ever-better airdrop abilities. To answer that, I think we need to talk about the different airdrop parameters, and what makes them more or less toxic:

• Range: How far out from the ship the bomb reticle can be placed. Is only problematic in combination with other strong values: e.g. van Speijk has a 15km drop range but only one charge and is generally not considered broken. Moving Tromp's drop to 12km would make it equal to the Johan de Witt and Haarlem.
• Reload: How fast each charge regenerates. Tromp has a 60s base reload instead of the 100s found on most of the cruisers, and can go as low as 48s if the captain is willing to make do without propulsion mod. That said, the reload is only as good as bombs it calls in -- you can call in airstrikes every 5s but it won't matter if they hit like soggy Stroop waffles. 
• Charges: By far the most toxic component. There is a world's difference between a van Speijk (1), a regular Gouden Leeuw (2) and a legendary mod. Gouden Leeuw (3) in terms of their ability to pressure opponents with bombs. Being able to hold one or two charges in reserve to punish DCPs puts enemies in a bind -- knowing there are still flights to come, they will often just let fires burn. Tromp retains the standard 2 drops.  
• Area: Tromp and De 7 Provinciën have a smaller reticle than the tech-tree Dutch cruisers (though frustratingly these parameters aren't listed on anywhere online). A smaller reticle is typically a double-edged sword, resulting either in a high amount of hits or a complete whiff. 
• Planes per attack/Plane HP: Essentially, how much the airdrop can resist AA defenses. Tromp, Gouden, De 7 all have 12 planes per drop, the other Dutch airdroppers have 10 (Haarlem, Johan, van Speijk) or 8 (Eendracht) or 6 (Kijkduin). Crucially, the Tromp's planes have 2750HP each, which is head and shoulders above any other airstrike (see comparison below).  
• Bombs per plane: This is the attack density. The standard (including Tromp) is 6 bombs per plane, but De 7 Provinciën only has 4, which is why her drops can feel a bit underwhelming.
• Damage/Penetration: The best bomblets have the penetration to cause direct damage, which massively increases the pressure on the target. The Dutch cruiser bombs have 32mm+ penetration which is good enough to wreck the weaker battleship decks. Tromp must make do with 20mm of pen and much lower alpha of 3,700, which will really only do damage to superstructures.
• Fire Chance: The main damage-dealing function of the bomblets. Tromp stands out among Dutch ships as having by far the weakest fire chance on her bombs.

Spoiler

Comparison of Dutch Airdrops

As we can see from the chart and bullet points above, there are aspects to the Tromp's airdrop game that are very good (fast reload, beefy total flight HP), that are counterbalanced by parameters that really hold it back -- most notably the very poor penetration. Increasing the range to 12km (which equals the torpedo range) will probably not do much to make the Dutch Aerial Menace much worse than it is -- it just pales in comparison to the Telephonic insanity of the Gouden Leeuw. That said, neither can it be said to help the destroyer with its biggest struggle -- consistently winning games.

Conclusion

Winrate-challenged damage-dealer receives damage-dealing buff; local analyst left puzzled. 

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Álvaro de Bazán (T10)
Burst-fire parameters changed: Maximum shell dispersion -10%
Torpedo detection reduced: 1.1km -> 1.0km

Back in the Napkin analysis on the 0.12.11 changes I confessed that had not been, up until that point, an Álvaro-enjoyer. A shameful blemish, I know, but thankfully people do occasionally change for the better, and I am happy to announce that I have grown quite fond of the Spanish destroyer in the 9 months since that article came out. The combination of burst-fire and a solid platform with decent speed, concealment, and survivability is an intriguing one; I found myself enjoying the fact that she could decide a match with a few well-calculated triple-salvoes rather than having to jackhammer my left mouse button for 20 minutes straight.

Unfortunately, not many others seem to be enjoying the Spaniard's company like I have. According to tomato.gg's 60-day WR differentials, the Álvaro is various shades of rock bottom among T10 destroyers.¹⁶ In contrast to fellow basement-dweller Tromp, the Bazán's place in the rankings doesn't climb when sorted for Frags or Damage. In other words, folks are struggling to win, do damage, and secure kills. Time for some more help, this time in form of a buff to the burst fire and to the stealth of the torpedoes.

Will the buffs make a difference?

Yes and no. In terms of reinforcing the Álvaro's role as a DD-hunter, both of the buffs fit the theme perfectly. The ship was designed around the use of the burst-fire, so tightening up the shot grouping to insure that the majority of the shells find their way to the enemy hull  is a good way to underscore the intended playstyle. The balancing philosophy of improving a ship's key ability is much better than the 0.12.11 buff to the main battery and burst-fire reload that seemed much more in line with the "ship no gud, moar dakka" as generally practiced in Mir Korabley.¹⁷ 

Reducing the torpedo detection from 1.1km -> 1.0km is an uncommon but valid way to support the ambush predator role. Even if the torpedoes only hit for 13,900 apiece, the fact that they can pop out of no-where makes lingering in predictable areas a very dangerous proposition for the enemy DD. As we talked about in the 0.12.11 Napkin analysis, the Álvaro's preferred victims are larger DDs that can be outspotted and methodically disassembled with a triple salvo. They also happen to be the sorts of ships that don't maneuver particularly well and are prone to catching the occasional torp. On the other hand, cap contesting specialists with hydro will have little to fear since the torps themselves only go 56kts -- an easy dodge if you see them coming from 3km. Cruisers also generally run hydro these days, and high tier battleships will scarcely notice the damage to their thick torp belts, making the torp detection buff a targeted improvement to the matchup vs. destroyers. 

On the whole, however, I don't believe that a few extra shells in a burst-fire salvo or the occasional extra torp will turn around the Spaniard's fortunes. She is currently winning about 4% fewer games than her player's baseline, which is not something that can be rectified by gently nudging some numbers (even though I commend the particular numbers they chose to nudge). Some aspects¹⁸ of the ship that could be further improved:

• Stealth: Currently a full-stealth Bazán has a 6.2km concealment. Since her play-style is about burst-fires and not sustained firefights, I think an improvement to 6.0km or 5.9km wouldn't be too overpowered.
• Armor: Too few DDs have armor, which is a shame because it is an underdeveloped aspect of DD vs. DD gameplay. Buffing the mid-section to 25mm would help protect the ship against DD return fire while not affecting how she interacts with cruisers and battleships.
• Smokes: Currently, the Álvaro uses the standard T10 DD smoke found on e.g. Shimakaze. It has a 20s bloom, 97s uptime, and 160s cooldown. Those timers don't really mesh with her hit-and-run playstyle. More interesting would be e.g. 15s bloom, 80s uptime, 140s cooldown with +1 base smoke charge to offer a bit of captain build flexibility. 
• Damage Control: All T10 destroyers currently have the same 5s duration 40s cooldown DCP. An interesting wrinkle would be to extend the Spanish DCP to e.g. 15s to help ensure that she escapes from burst-firefights with no active fires or damaged modules.
• AP penetration angles: The Bazán's AP could be strengthened in its role against enemy thick-boi destroyers by adding a few degrees of guaranteed non-ricochet angles. That said, even as I write this, I don't think extra gun power is the solution.        

All in all, I am happy to see that the balance team is seeking to strengthen the Álvaro de Bazán's role as a DD-jump-scare-inducer. Time will if the improvements have been enough to right the ship (ha!) or if another round of aid is required. If so, I hope they remain true to the example they set in this round.

Conclusion

Two thematically fitting buffs for a struggling DD-ambusher deserve an equal number of thumbs up.

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Ruggiero di Lauria (T10)
Long Range AA bubble increased: 4.6km -> 5.2km
Overall AA DPS adjusted to compensate: 353 -> 318

Piemonte (T11)
Long Range AA bubble increased: 4.6km -> 5.2km
Overall AA DPS adjusted to compensate: 508 -> 455

These two buffs accomplish the same thing, so we will discuss them briefly together in a format that I totally haven't stolen from a famous western and about a million listicles on the internet: 

The Good

• Italian ships have notoriously bad AA ranges¹⁹ so every shred of range is welcome. Remember also that a 13% increase to the radius of the bubble translates to a 29% increase in the area covered. Range is not only important because it gives the flak more bites at the apple, but because it increases the area in which priority sector can be activated, which is the best AA mechanic in the game. 
• This is the sort of nerdy detail that WG used to be adjusting all the time before they committed development-sudoku by sinking all their resources into reworks, submarines, and reworks of previous reworks. The fact that someone took the time to decide to fix this is good to see. More of same please.

The Bad

• The Ruggiero di Lauria (70) and the Piemonte (52.5) both have putrid long range DPS. 
• The Ruggiero di Lauria (3 ± 1) and the Piemonte (2 ± 1) both have very low flak for their tier.   
• The new range of 5.2km is still pretty awful. Combined with the poor DPS and threadbare flak, it means enemy CVs can still do donuts in the outer layer of the Italian ships' AA without much consequence.

The Ugly

• The Ruggiero di Lauria is the size of Indonesia and turns about as easily. CVs can probably drop torps and skip bombs outside of the improved AA range and still get all their munitions on target.   

Conclusion

AA range buffs will probably not accomplish much, but it's good to see the balance team still cares about the small stuff.

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Final Thoughts

Only one reload buff. That might be a new record. 😃

Jokes aside, I am heartened to see this group of thoughtful tweaks to a group of ships that definitely needed some help. Undoing the Henri IV nerf has been a long time coming, and I am glad to see WG wasn't too proud to admit that mistake by fixing it. The Hector buff is very exciting -- I think everything we've known about that ship goes out the window with the addition of the super-heal; could be a sleeper pick for a really fun T9 go-nuts super-light cruiser. The balance team deserves particular praise for the character-appropriate Saint-Louis and Álvaro de Bazán buffs -- the contrast to mindless dakka dakka buffs over in Russia is growing starker day by day. Even the Tromp's airstrike range increase, though not my first choice on how to help the ship, opens more interesting possibilities for the player to explore. I also appreciate the small improvements to the I-56, the Ruggiero di Lauria, and the Piedmonte -- it is always a good thing when attention is being paid. But bigger challenges await (cough cough re-settling the Buffalo), so no time to rest on your laurels! 

Thank you for reading ❤️

 

 

Footnotes

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¹ The highest DD hp at Tier 8 is the Gustav-Julius Maerker at 22,300 -- meaning that with Survivability Expert and wearing her mother's heels she barely scrapes together enough to surpass the I-56. This is even more laughable since the game files list the tonnage of each ship: the I-56 has 2,100HP more despite weighing 1,353 tons less than the German DD. 

Spoiler

Comparison of tonnage between G.-J. Maerker and I-56

² Even with TRB mounted, which grants an extra 8 torpedoes every 240s, the Kagerō's torp DPM would still not be able to reach the I-56's 35s turnaround on 6x16.3k torps.  

³ That was the theory, at least. Anyone who has seen Yuro's I-56 video will know that in the hands of a fearless super-unicum the I-56 was a menace to ships of all sizes. Making matters worse, most veteran players would just use legendary captain Yamamoto Isoroku's First-Blood-activated ability Emergency Reserve to gain +1 of each consumable, partially undoing the sub's intended weakness. The high hit point pool and even nuttier torpedo alpha meant that the I-56 could just bypass the niceties of information gathering and straight up murder people in the face.

⁴ tomato.gg 60-day Winrate-Differential for T9 Cruisers, EU, NA, Asia Servers, accessed July 30th, 2024.

Spoiler

60-Day Winrate Diffentials for T9 Cruisers on EU, NA, and Asia Servers

⁵ One of my favorite Mouse-isms. 

⁶ Some folks (even good players) struggle to wrap their head around why Survivability Expert is such an important skill to have. Think about it this way: you can super-heal back from 1 hp to half health; the same cannot be said for being 0 hp. Every shred of HP matters when it comes to winning games.

⁷ Compare this change to help that Hector received in Mir Korabley: a reload buff from 6.7s -> 5.7s. Once again I think WoWS players can call themselves lucky that their balancing team has more imagination than just mindlessly adding firepower. 

⁸ AB-XY is the British nomenclature for a ship with two turrets forward and two turrets aft of the superstructure. AB-X means there is only one turret aft. 

⁹ NA Server, random battles, all players/top 10%, accessed July 30th, 2024. https://na.wows-numbers.com/ship/4180588528,Buffalo/

¹⁰ Anyone who had to suffer through the old A-Hull Amagi with no AA and toothless AP shells should be entitled to some form of free counseling. 

¹¹ The upshot was that Tier 7s were often nigh-unplayable because they consistently faced ships with two extra modules to boost their concealment and firepower. So it goes; for one tier to be enjoyable, another must be stepped upon.

¹² One of the few Mir Korabley buffs that I applaud was the decision in their version 0.12.10 to drop the base concealment of Saint-Louis from 14.5km -> 13.8km, meaning the full stealth build improved from 11.7km -> 11.2km. I would have much rather had that than 200 extra damage on the HE shells.

¹³ The WoWS shipbuilder has a really cool visualizer for acceleration curves for those that want to play around a bit.

¹⁴ If this isn't the greatest emote ever, I don't know what is.

Spoiler

¹⁵ tomato.gg 60-day Play Rate for T10 Cruisers, Asia Server, accessed August 1st, 2024.

Spoiler

¹⁶ tomato.gg 60-day Play Rate for T10 Destroyers, EU, NA, Asia Servers, accessed August 2nd, 2024.

Spoiler

¹⁷ In a perplexing display of self-restraint, Mir Korabley hasn't touched the Bazán's DPM, instead choosing to buff the turret traverse in their update 0.12.8 https://blog.korabli.su/blog/474. However, I think the Spanish DD is better off with poor turret traverse and I am glad WG hasn't touched it. Bad traverse demands a methodical, anticipatory playstyle which is exactly what the Álvaro should be.

¹⁸ Bear in mind these are parallel suggestions -- a ship with all of these aspects would be waaay overtuned.

¹⁹ With the exception of the Sicilia's USN-supplied 5-inch dual purpose turrets because 'mix-and-match hulls and turrets' is the best the gutted ship-modeling department at Wargaming can muster right now.

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Have a croissant for making it through all the footnotes 🥐

[I_cant_Swim_]

Brisk or no, I'm lovin' it and still reading. Thank you, @torino2dc

[YouSatInGum]

On 8/1/2024 at 5:04 PM, torino2dc said:

Gents this is going to have to be a brisk one.

Have a croissant for making it through all the footnotes 🥐

Sir, your prose as always, is still in top form condensed or not.

You even managed to throw in the best new potential playerbase jab since Ragnar became underpowered: 

Quote

Throw enough shells at the wall and some will stick; call it stochastic player improvement. 

I will be defining said phrase early and often in discord and chat.  Thanks again sir!

...now on to my only critique:

While there is absolutely not a thing wrong with singing the praises of specialized repair teams, I'm afraid even this gift from the Russian... er Slavic game gods will still not be enough to save Hector from the super trash award among premium ships... or least still the title holder amongst RB ships.

While thought of being mongrel offspring of colbert and uganda is a wonderful description I had not dreamed of, for easy to understand comparison sake, I still prefer the comparison as being the Neptune will all the good consumables taken away.

Hector has most of the problems that a Neptune has included being of easiest to dev strike cruisers in the game, but also (formerly) lacked the super heal, DPM, 5km  hydro, , radar option, captain points to take radio location, and a reasonable cool down smoke time to get the pressure on.... and I swear that Hector, despite having being a close cousin, accelerates and handles worse than Neptune.
Of course the real cake takers were additional weaknesses that make Neptune the ship with the most post return to port, Alt-F4 button combo presses of all time.  While neptune has kiting gun angles seemly designed to delude Battleship mains into thinking they are ready for KOTS glory, Hector manages to say "Hold my beer and watch this!" by managing to not even be of apply top DPM and kite AT ALL.  Even if you settle for the irrational 6/7th percentage of DPM it still manages to beat Neptune's bad, but could be worse 37 degrees, by being significantly worse at 41 degrees or basically an angle that every ship in the game will AP pen a high percentage of the time (the closer to the magic 45 degree you are, the higher chance it has to not bounce).  Not that it matters as Torino pointed out... a large number of cruisers now overmatch Hector's 16mm armor.

Another unfixed travesty of Hector is the IFHE dilemma.  Unlike other smoke based ultra lights at lower tiers like Flint and Chumphon IFHE does not grant the ability to effectively farm battleships.  Using those 4 precious captain points now only grants the chance of damaging the increasingly endangered high tier cruiser but at the price of now only being able fight BB's with superstructure hits and relying on fires.  Even Vegas newbies will recognize this bad bet as BB's now typically occupy half the slots in a game while 2 cruisers in random fight is not typical.  4 points and gutting fire chance just isn't 4 points....at least in typical game.

All the weakness of Neptune plus cherry topping few others have led me to preaching to all who would listen to not not make to same mistake as me and let their love of dakka mislead you down the path of Research Bureau misery.  The super heal with certainly make it much less miserable but all the pain points are mostly still intact.

Without some other significant tool such as unnerfing the 11th hour hydro nerf that gimped it's cap contesting gimmick potential I still Hector as remaining the premium trash king champ.... even if the title is a little more contested now.

[clammboy]

Very well done thanks for the excellent analysis as always @torino2dc. 

[Wolfswetpaws]

On 8/1/2024 at 6:04 PM, torino2dc said:

"Gents this is going to have to be a brisk one.  ..."

Your version of "brisk" is similar to Hermione Granger's version of "light reading".  😉 

 

[Aethervox]

On 8/1/2024 at 3:04 PM, torino2dc said:

Buffalo (T9)

I have ground to the Buffalo. Sad to hear it's got 'issues'. As I do historical ships & as much as possible, avoid fantasy crap, this ship may be in my port a long time. All the other ships you mention I don't have nor, likely, will ever have, hence, I could care less.

However, thank-you for providing your analyses of all these other high tier ships. I am sure this will educate those players who might play these fantasies.

[torino2dc]

On 8/3/2024 at 3:08 PM, YouSatInGum said:

While there is absolutely not a thing wrong with singing the praises of specialized repair teams, I'm afraid even this gift from the Russian... er Slavic game gods will still not be enough to save Hector from the super trash award among premium ships... or least still the title holder amongst RB ships.

While thought of being mongrel offspring of colbert and uganda is a wonderful description I had not dreamed of, for easy to understand comparison sake, I still prefer the comparison as being the Neptune will all the good consumables taken away.

I'm not sure I would compare the Hector to the Neptune. Despite surface level similarities, they are very much their own ships.

 

The Neptune is fundamentally an aggressive light cruiser, she is designed for pouncing upon the enemy and annihilating them with overwhelming firepower (that's why radar is the correct choice, not smoke). She has the higher hitpoint pool (~10k extra) and the better vision control tools (10km radar, 5km hydro) for the job. What she cannot do well is wear down a push, as she is too brittle to trade shots for prolonged periods of time, and her AP becomes ineffective against nose-in targets. 

 

Hector, by contrast, is fundamentally a defensive ship. She has better stealth (9.4km) that pairs well with a lot of 12km torps to stall a push. The crawl smoke is versatile tool for giving ground in a controlled manner; she can do a 1/4 crawl with full coverage or a 'running crawl' where the smoke covers the stern enough to prevent spotting. (It also allows for an advanced kiting technique where the ship briefly steps in and out of its own crawl smoke to spot/fire/restealth). Finally and perhaps most importantly, the non-IFHE Hector is one of the best fire starters at her tier, which allows her to grind down pushing battleships in ways unavailable to a Neptune. 

That said, I do think Neptune is better at her job than Hector is at hers, primarily because the crawl smoke is not as powerful a consumable as radar.