The Probability of Defended Ribbons - map choices

[Asym]

OK, its been years playing and I've got to wonder:  does the game "rig" map choices when you have to achieve Defended Ribbons?

As many of you know, I have created large COOP sample sizes to test what actually happens over the years.  This is the next sample topic.

As of right now, 60 matches in, I am seeing map selection changes that support the game "knows" when you need defended ribbons.  There is a 55% higher chance of the game fielding an "arms race" map as compared to a "cap" map.....   this morning alone was 60% arms race maps.

I'll track 400 matches over the next several months (when we have defended ribbons requirements...)

What are your thoughts on this.  Please, no tin foil;  because, I'm really curious if the game actually is shewing the map selection !

Edited September 3, 2023 by Asym
missing words

[Justin_Simpleton]

I've been observing the same phenomenon.  Sorry I can't be anything more than a tin-foil hat because tracking that stuff isn't fun for me.  I just don't believe that things in this game are truly random.  There is a thumb on the scale.

[Daniel_Allan_Clark]

It's always been safe to assume that WG plays with 'RNG' to increase the revenue streams of the game.

For a while, when my play days would be interrupted by work travel, I could always count on good teams and good RNG on the first few matches back after a few days off.

WG wanted me to have that good feeling when I came back.

I know if I bring my Friesland or my AA spec ships...I won't see a CV much on the enemy team.

I've known certain ship captains to be unhittable with USN HE bombs no matter how good the dispersion ellipse shows. They had some RNG protection for their misplays.

I've gotten damage results higher than I should have on aerial drops too.

The game is more like a casino than many are willing to admit.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Daniel_Allan_Clark

[SunkCostFallacy]

I can absolutely believe it.

I'm sure that I've seen more Arm Race matches since the start of the current rash of event missions requiring defend flags ... but like most of us that's just anecdotal evidence because we don't bother to gather data. Suffice to say that I'm glad that you are doing so @Asym.

To touch on the point that @Daniel_Allan_Clark made with regards to his Friesland ... more anecdotal input from me: I was grinding the US DD line and I got seriously sick of being bugged by the bot CVs. So I put Defensive Fire AA on each one where I could, and I absolutely saw fewer bot CVs in COOP as a result ... and was a less attractive target when there was a CV in the match. I need to note, however, that this was several patches ago as I haven't played those ships in quite a while so that behavior may no longer be happening or as prevalent.

We do have to acknowledge that when a person has a current 'need', for example defend flags for a mission, they are much more likely to notice factors which bear on their ability to fulfill that need ... in other words we are going to notice Arms Races more when they get in the way of our missions ... but the sheer numbers make me think we're seeing something more than just that.

[Asym]

4 hours ago, SunkCostFallacy said:

We do have to acknowledge that when a person has a current 'need', for example defend flags for a mission, they are much more likely to notice factors which bear on their ability to fulfill that need ... in other words we are going to notice Arms Races more when they get in the way of our missions ... but the sheer numbers make me think we're seeing something more than just that.

I finished my defended needs....  So, tomorrow, let's see what I draw.  I have 60 matches with defended needs.  Several weeks of not needing till I see Defended needs again.  Then, we have a short baseline to compare to.

Occam is so smart....  I can see where this goes and the numbers will, if OCCAM is right, tell me there is a "skewed process...."  To what end>?  I'm not sure right now.

[AtagoBestWaifu]

While I wouldn't be surprised if this was the case, at the same time I haven't noticed anything like it. Defended ribbons are probably the easiest to farm, closely followed by citadels.

[Asym]

3 hours ago, AtagoBestWaifu said:

While I wouldn't be surprised if this was the case, at the same time I haven't noticed anything like it. Defended ribbons are probably the easiest to farm, closely followed by citadels.

I am happy defended are easy for you...  That is not the case on the NA server for me.  Spawning and the arms race are nothing I control.......if we are supposed to have "equal access" to a game, then, our expectations should be similar.  Unfortunately, we already know that the servers and the content on those servers are not equal...

I suspect, that is why some things are easy on one and difficult on another.  And, if true, that will not bode well for this game.

[o4x4]

All RNG, first game of day got 15 out 20 for dockyard.  Not even trying to, just happened that nobody got into A besides a red DD and my secondaries farmed defense ribbons for me while I busy shooting bots at B.

[SureBridge]

IIRC Ranked is always "Domination" so that's the easy lace to go if you play PvP, not so easy PvE since you can't get defends in Operations...

I'll be interested in seeing how Asymm's numbers come out.