Analysis - Is the MMO genre reaching an end game?

[Tpaktop2_1 NA]

My brother and I got into a discussion over WoWS then the discussion expanded out to MMO games in general. He thinks that MMO games will be going away because the on-line player population will not be able to support PC gaming platforms. Ergo players are doing other things or games such as mobile/VR gaming or living their lives.

These are the articles that I have read:

https://www.makeuseof.com/reasons-mmos-are-dying/
https://mmos.com/editorials/mmorpgs-are-dying
https://www.vintageisthenewold.com/game-pedia/why-is-mmorpg-genre-dying

Here are some of the common problem with MMO games. 

• One of the biggest items I see pointed out in many articles on the subject is the over-monetization ruining the MMO experience. This happens when the player population goes down and the software companies are trying to make up for lost revenues. 
• An MMO experience requires a huge time investment. Mission directives are taking to much time to grind out. Making a player play for more than 30 minutes for a reward is too much in demands for a MMO player.
• The MMO gaming infrastructure today is not the same as is was 8 to 10 years ago. There is no built in flexibility to adjust to time progression of games. In addition, the real world has change and therefore companies have greater expenses now when compared to the first startup.

I would have thought that software companies would have a "forward vision" to see, to predict expected business shortfalls from outside events and technological improvements. That is if they plan to live for years as a company. I would have thought they would have built in a process for just occasions. However I think all game developers like everyone else get into ruts too. The experts say the shelf life of MMO is a minimum of seven years. I know WoWS is getting up in age, but I think of it like a 10 year old Scotch whiskey. I know that WoWS has potential. I know it can be a better game. However what will Wargaming do with the product to make it a true flagship game of warships? Because what they have been doing in the past is not making it survive the future IMO.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Tpaktop2_1 NA
typo

[Itwastuesday]

Unlikely, there's always a call for PVP that's quick and convenient to play for a bit. Dunno about the PC doom and gloom either, I recall talk of PC gaming dying soon ever since the early 2000's.

[ArIskandir]

Nah. As most other aspects of economy, the worst case scenario would be a "bubble"... At some point it will explode and send some developers out of business. Darwinism will apply and the best at doing their business will endure while the "noise and filler" will go away... And we won't miss them. 

[thornzero]

In 2o22 the global video gaming market was worth 99 billion dollars not counting the mobile market which was 248 billion.

With this much money at stake, gaming in general isn't going anywhere but north. WoWs has a niche [and a sliver of the market] and for the most part, they are doing okay. The reason I say that is the complainers that grease the squeaky wheel, although loud and sometimes obnoxious, they are in the minority. 

[Daniel_Allan_Clark]

44 minutes ago, Tpaktop2_1 NA said:

I would have thought that software companies would have a "forward vision" to see, to predict expected business shortfalls from outside events and technological improvements. That is if they plan to live for years as a company. I would have thought they would have built in a process for just occasions.

This is a logical expectation.

However, now that I have decades of experience as a customer of this particular industry...and within other industries with similar requirements for long term forward visions...

Management and finance culture at present is fundamentally unable to do anything more than just talk about long term plans and visions. The way capital is raised and managed means anything beyond a 3-5 year plan is literally impossible. The equity market just doesn't provide resources beyond that point...

In order to actually resource and execute a long term plan vision, complete control of the organization has to be held within the organization. There can be no influence from Wall Street or other investors. Those guys don't want to wait for good product or a stable industry...they want their money to grow NOW so they can pull it out and put it somewhere else where it will grow faster.

It's literally insane...but all the smart eggheads keep thinking faster turnover is a better substitute than sustainable growth and a healthy industry...

...and when shown the damage that their foolish strategies cause, they shrug their shoulders, talk about how much money THEY made...and claim it's all working as intended.

[Snargfargle]

Here is a good report for those of you interested in the state of online gaming today. The PC gaming market itself has become somewhat of a niche one, with only 20% playing on PCs or laptops. However, since 40% of the world plays video games, even a niche market can be profitable.

https://www.uswitch.com/broadband/studies/online-gaming-statistics/

Edited December 28, 2023 by Snargfargle

[Arcus_Aesopi]

I think VR and MMO's are made for each other (think of World of Warcraft and its genre in VR).  WoWs will be a bit more difficult since it isn't a 1st person type game however I have seen a submarine sim on VR that allowed a group of players to operate ONE sub in a limited fashion... Very interesting for the future.

Imagine the WHOLE forum at individual Virtual panels on ONE ship... we MIGHT be able to get it off the pier in a few years of dedicated study, each of us mastering a Bible length technical manual and chosing a captain...  OR...we could just all join the Navy... they have a game called "R".  I hear they need us... probably even us old retirees.

I don't think it is quite a bleak as some paint the future, but everything will adapt with some exciting possibilities in the immediate future.  I played a VR with pass-through alien invasion game in my own living room with the invading critters coming through my OWN windows... was fun... was blasting new holes in my walls (to their universe... which just allowed more of 'em to come in...)

Fun way to loose!

[ArIskandir]

6 minutes ago, Arcusaesopi said:

I think VR and MMO's are made for each other

The thing about VR and Top-end graphics is the rig required can be expensive, limiting the potential market. There's and there will always be a big market for low-end graphic games and consequently even with all the technology advances in graphics an inmersive experiences, there'll be developers focusing on low-res, cheap games able to run on crapy laptops.