Why you shouldn't spend a bunch of money on Santa containers...

[YouSatInGum]

I keep seeing the posts on people's good fortune on Santa containers....

Just want to give the other side of the coin...

The one ship I did get was literally a pity drop as that is invoked at 15...AND I had already opened 2 megas by accident.

 

Now don't get me wrong... this was all cashless to me (I won't call it free as my time is worth something to me) so I'm not too broken up about it,

but had I actually dropped $100+ or so cash equivalent to this.... you bet I would.

 

The tin foil hat in me wonders if it's because they have developed an algorithm to adjust chances for those with lots of ships already to try to stretch the whales.  For a company that was already found guilty of Makarov scandal (which was basically illegal in many places where they did business), and then call it a mis-communication.... well I wouldn't put it past them to do something more sophisticated and harder to detect.

But that's mainly my imagination.... more likely is that lots of people like me just get crap rolls.  Which is the reason for this post.  If you spend money on these things, just imagine that you will get a haul just like mine.  If you are fine with that...spend away.... if not, it's just a game.

 

Happy Holidays to all!

Edited December 25, 2023 by YouSatInGum

[Aethervox]

1 hour ago, YouSatInGum said:

this was all cashless to me

Same, as in no cash for 'them'.

[DoW_]

I will share opening 14 mega and 5 Big gift containers, pulled Novorossiysk. Thankfully they were freely earned. 
 

This result makes me extra appreciative for getting Smolensk from the recent auction. 

[Ensign Cthulhu]

Based on my results with multiple 20-mega sets last year and the year before (so numbers and results are reasonably comparable), you appear to have been particularly unlucky with regard to ships from your 19 this year.

As for the Makarov, well you know how often she was available in the shop, don't you? Almost never. That makes her a rare bird. The difference between us is that I'm happy with any premium ship I pull from the crates whereas many others are not.

6 hours ago, YouSatInGum said:

The tin foil hat in me wonders if it's because they have developed an algorithm to adjust chances for those with lots of ships already to try to stretch the whales. 

Are you implying that the more ships you have, the more the scales will be weighted against you to keep you spending? The results I refer to above suggest that this definitely wasn't the case for me (after Christmas 2021, my 2022 Santa Crate RNG was stupidly good). I'll have to see if I can find my previous years' written logs, since the pull lists I posted to the old forums no longer exist and I omitted to duplicate them on my Discord.

6 hours ago, YouSatInGum said:

but had I actually dropped $100+ or so cash equivalent to this....

To put it bluntly: if you're not ready to be content with the least favourable outcome, don't go down the rabbit hole.  

[Ensign Cthulhu]

So here's my yield from this year, which I've copied from my paper log into Discord and then reposted here. When I looked at it, mirabile dictu, I found that I had won exactly 3500 doubloons from crates for which I paid nothing, which exactly cancelled out what I paid for the premium battlepass and the 10 certificates (-> 2 megas) it gave me. In other words, my haul from this year is doubloon-neutral.

Spoiler

6 December.

Small - Port slot. Mega - LEIPZIG (T6 KM cruiser)

Mega - 12,500 coal .

 

7 December Small - 25 Sierra Mike flags Mega - 2.25 million credits.

Mega - 20 x 160% credits bonus.

Small - 12 x 200% ship XP

Small - 25 x India Delta flags

Small - 3 x 160% credits bonuses

Mega - 20 x 800% ship XP Mega - 20 x 160% credits

Mega - 25 x 1-shot camos (can be sold for credits)

Mega - 2.25 million credits . (edited)

 

 

8 December Small - 20,000 Elite Commander XP

Small - 12 x 40% credit bonus

Mega - 20 x 2400% FXP bonus

Small - 5 x 1-shot camo

Small - 12 x 200% Ship XP

Small - 5 x 1-shot camo

Mega - 2500 doubloons

Mega - 20 x 160% credits 

 

 

.9 December

Small - 12 x 600% FXP

Small - 12 x 600% FXP

Small - 5 x 1-shot camos .

 

 

10 December Small - 5 x 1-shot camos .

 

11 December - no crates. .

 

12 December - no crates. .

 

13 December

Big - ORKAN (T8 Euro DD)

Small - 3 x 160% credit bonus

Small - 25 x India Delta flags .

 

14 December

Small - 500 doubloons

Small - 25 x Inda X-ray flags

Small - 500 doubloons. .

 

15 December - no crates.

 

16 December - no crates. .

 

17 December

Small - 12 x 200% Ship XP bonus

Big - 60,000 Elite Commander XP . 

 

18 December - no crates. 

 

19 December

Small - 20,000 Elite Commander XP

Small - 5 x 1-shot camos.

Small - 2500 coal

Small - 25 x Sierra Mike flags

Small - 12 x 200% Commander XP bonus .

 

20 December - no crates. .

 

21 December - no crates. .

 

22 December

Big - 7500 coal

Big - 15 x 1-shot camo

Big - 1.35 million credits .

 

23 December - no crates. .

 

24 December - 3500 dubs (my entire doubloon winnings from unpaid crates) spent. 3 Megas from free track and 10 certificates from the paid track yielding two more megas:

Mega - 2.25 million credits

Mega - 25 x 1-shot camos

Mega - 2.25 million credits

Mega - 20 x 800% Commander XP bonus

Mega - MISSOURI (T9 US battleship; rare drop)

I'm probably going to pull enough certificates from the post-progression track for at least one more mega, at which point I will update this list and summarize it by crate size. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Ensign Cthulhu

[UnderTheRadarAgain]

21 free crates - all megas - exchanged for bonus certificates from the T10 snowflakes.

 

5000 steel = 4 ships.

[tocqueville8]

7 hours ago, YouSatInGum said:

The one ship I did get was literally a pity drop as that is invoked at 15...AND I had already opened 2 megas by accident.

While that's not a good drop overall, 90 days of premium time plus 5000 dubs are each worth about the same as a mid-tier premium ship.

For comparison, out of 20+ I got 4 (mediocre) ships, but no dubs, no premium time and only 1 coal bag.

[YouSatInGum]

32 minutes ago, tocqueville8 said:

While that's not a good drop overall, 90 days of premium time plus 5000 dubs are each worth about the same as a mid-tier premium ship.

For comparison, out of 20+ I got 4 (mediocre) ships, but no dubs, no premium time and only 1 coal bag.

True....but think about if you had just dropped the 100-120 or so for the Santa boxes....and in return you get $20 of prem, $20 of dubs, and  a $35 ship (or less with coupon), and the rest is stuff that is earned from playing.... yeah... break even with even a conservative point of view.

2 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

To put it bluntly: if you're not ready to be content with the least favourable outcome, don't go down the rabbit hole.  

Exactly.  Which is why I don't spend money on this fool's errand.  But you know that many do with the hope of getting more ships for their money.  I'm trying to show that you can lose and actually get less for you money if ships are your goal. 

WG is not your friend and this is not a holiday sale.... or at least not anymore.  The only sale this company ever does anymore is the 1/2 off premium and this year that was done earlier and with a shorter period than ever before.

 

You know, many companies, when they want to increase revenue will do an actual sale.  Not these guys.... they do the opposite. 

I think it's some foreshadowing of their marketing for the next year.... more chasing after whales and less attention to the other 95% of us.

[Ocsimano18]

Last year, I had bad luck with the free crates, got no ships from them. It was somewhat compensated by the Prime Gaming crates that gave me Bazan and Béarn. This year, I hit the jackpot with the free crates, opened an Enterprise and a Constellation, both of them are to my liking. I also opened I-56, and Friesland, whichare both hight tier, and a T5 and a T6 DD. That is nice for a free haul. I spent about €5 on the dockyard, that’s my annual spending on WOWS. Also, I have a lot of the listed T5-T7 missing, so the high tier drops are by chance. By the way, if this was to encourage me of spending then they won. I wouldn’t spent anything on the game having only bad free drops. So net €5 for Wargaming.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Ocsimano18

[Frostbow]

14 hours ago, YouSatInGum said:

For a company that was already found guilty of Makarov scandal (which was basically illegal in many places where they did business), and then call it a mis-communication.... well I wouldn't put it past them to do something more sophisticated and harder to detect.

I suspect they also try to milk whales a little bit more when it comes to Santa Containers and Random Bundles. They did all sorts of convoluted mechanics before, shrouded in equally complicated language, so it wouldn't be unnatural nor far fetched for Wargaming to milk whales for as long as possible via Santa Gifts.

7 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

As for the Makarov, well you know how often she was available in the shop, don't you? Almost never. That makes her a rare bird. The difference between us is that I'm happy with any premium ship I pull from the crates whereas many others are not.

^^^ This is standard line of WG defenders when it comes to the hugely notorious and highly embarassing Makarov scam that Wargaming thought they could get away with.

Defenders of WG talk about 'being happy with any premium ship I pull from the crates'. What these defenders conveniently omit to mention is the fact that the Makarov scam revealed to the world the supposedly 'random' containers was in reality not random at all. The revelation of the shortlist led to a huge dumpster fire that Wargaming eventually admitted it, albeit indirectly, via refunds. 😂

7 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

The results I refer to above suggest that this definitely wasn't the case for me (after Christmas 2021, my 2022 Santa Crate RNG was stupidly good).

I recall last year you posted on the old NA forum about your set budget for 4 packs of 20 mega containers. You did not get what you really wanted from the first 4 packs of 20 mega containers you bought.

You then decided to spend more, buying 4 more 20 megas, and only then was your Santa Crate RNG became as you said, 'stupidly good'. We were happy for you as you proudly shared getting Belfast, among others.

Therefore, your experience supports the theory that...

14 hours ago, YouSatInGum said:

The tin foil hat in me wonders if it's because they have developed an algorithm to adjust chances for those with lots of ships already to try to stretch the whales.

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Frostbow

[Wulf_Ace]

I think you got value from those containers, diffrent thing is that you expected a lot of ships and rare ones.

[Ensign Cthulhu]

5 hours ago, Frostbow said:

I recall last year you posted on the old NA forum about your set budget for 4 packs of 20 mega containers. You did not get what you really wanted from the first 4 packs of 20 mega containers you bought.

You then decided to spend more, buying 4 more 20 megas,

I bought TWO more 20-megas. The knock-on effect of that is that I didn't feel the need to buy four 20-packs this year - or any other year moving forward, for that matter. 

I can tell you right now, though - if they hadn't put the Kamikazes back into the Christmas boxes, I wouldn't have bought any last year. The thing that motivated me to say "F it, I'm going for it" was (a) the insertion of the Kamis back into the boxes and (b) the removal of the Nikolai from ever appearing in any boxes at all just before the Santa season started. And if WG decided in its wisdom(?) to pull the Kamikazes (again) in that way just before Christmas 2023 season, well I'd be stuffed, wouldn't I?

I took a deliberate decision to break that budget for those reasons and said so up front at the time. I also had a cooldown period before making that decision; I didn't just roll on and buy sets five and six immediately after set four. You want to drag up the past, fine - but you don't get to drag up just the parts that suit you.

[Frostbow]

1 hour ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

I bought TWO more 20-megas.

1 hour ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

took a deliberate decision to break that budget for those reasons and said so up front at the time.

Thanks for adding clarity, what you did—buying more, and making the deliberate decision behind it—really supports the theory that...

21 hours ago, YouSatInGum said:

 they have developed an algorithm to adjust chances for those with lots of ships already to try to stretch the whales. 

 

The FOMO has always been real, and I wouldn't be surprised if Wargaming would admit to consulting psychologists and other professionals that study consumer/player behavior when it comes to loot boxes. At the end of the day, World of Warships is still a business first and foremost.

[WES_HoundDog]

looks pretty good to me

[Ensign Cthulhu]

7 hours ago, Frostbow said:

At the end of the day, World of Warships is still a business first and foremost.

Oh of course it is. Without money rolling in, the whole thing shuts down. That being said, I never reflexively bought everything WG puts down in front of me and I never will. 

 

[Frostbow]

7 hours ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

Without money rolling in, the whole thing shuts down.

All the more the reasonable belief that WG milks whales for as long as possible becomes stronger. 😂

[Verytis]

If you can't do the maths and accept the risks, you really shouldn't gamble.

As for those believing WG rigs them, there are drop rates on display. I don't know the laws in detail, but it'd probably be a big deal if they're caught falsifying drop rates.

[Kruzenstern]

19 boxes is a far too small number to expect good results from. Just like winrate, droprate becomes more meaningful the more instances you have. Personally, I am in the lucky position to be able to use my birthday certificate for Satan boxes, so I buy 50K dubs to get 100K and then open two batches of 42 boxes each (because you know, 42). Doing this, I have not been disappointed in the past few years yet, and this year I pretty much got the jackpot, it giving me just the rare ship I wanted (Lenin) and some other pearls I didn't even realize were fun ships (Georgia is pretty nice, and West Virginia '44, which I thought to be a turd, turned out to be exceptionally good at asymmetric battles, all four matches I did in it so far yielded 200K+ damage)

That being said, I am in it as much for the blue and red boosters as the ships, if those are worthless to you, the Satan boxes are a lot less attractive. And it also helps to aquire all the shitty sub-tier8 ships, so they don't take the drops of the better ones.

[Vader_Sama]

On 12/25/2023 at 7:16 PM, YouSatInGum said:

True....but think about if you had just dropped the 100-120 or so for the Santa boxes....and in return you get $20 of prem, $20 of dubs, and  a $35 ship (or less with coupon), and the rest is stuff that is earned from playing.... yeah... break even with even a conservative point of view.

Where exactly are you getting the conclusion of "100-120" Santa Boxes drops giving you low value?

The only real thing to watch for is the Santa's Mega Gifts of which you only have 19 of in the drop (to be fair it's a bit on the unluckier side of drops from what I've seen for 19 Mega Gifts)


This is what a 100 Mega Gift crates can look like

 

For clarification, I already have all ships in the list and thus each potential ship drop comes in compensation of 1250 steel each

[I_cant_Swim_]

12 minutes ago, Vader_Sama said:

Where exactly are you getting the conclusion of "100-120" Santa Boxes drops giving you low value?

I think he means 100-120$

[YouSatInGum]

5 hours ago, Vader_Sama said:

Where exactly are you getting the conclusion of "100-120" Santa Boxes drops giving you low value?

The only real thing to watch for is the Santa's Mega Gifts of which you only have 19 of in the drop (to be fair it's a bit on the unluckier side of drops from what I've seen for 19 Mega Gifts)


This is what a 100 Mega Gift crates can look like

 

For clarification, I already have all ships in the list and thus each potential ship drop comes in compensation of 1250 steel each

Yes... I meant the 100-120 cash equivalent.

...and let me be blunt.  If 100 mega containers is a trivial transaction to you, then you are the exact whale that WG is gunning for.  Unfortunately, that means that they are very interested in your opinion compared to the consumer surplus point of view that I (and probably majority of players whether they realize it or not) have.

 

6 hours ago, Verytis said:

As for those believing WG rigs them, there are drop rates on display. I don't know the laws in detail, but it'd probably be a big deal if they're caught falsifying drop rates.

They were caught.  No doubt it was in violation gambling laws in multiple jurisdictions, but video game gambling is still a gray area.  It's still wild west times.  Basically nothing of consequence happened to WG.  Oh...they offered refunds, but with the poison pill of rolling back your account so not really a true refund.

 In there semi-unregulated times, the big video game companies walk a tightrope where they try to get away with as much as possible without getting too much attention cast on the situation and cause legislation to catch up....and then you got minor game companies like WG (compared to EA and such) that are willing to push the boundaries a little harder because they think they can get away with it.  It's actually a classic game theory prisoner's dilemma question except that there are unequal conditions allowing WG more freedom in "confessing".  Confessing in this case means more aggressive monetization without worry of punishment in the marketplace.

 

Now, let me explicitly say it here.  I think it's unlikely that WG has written a code to adjust odds for those with many ships or those with frequent/large transactions.  They sorta don't need to since "house always wins" with the current odds.  I mean these guys still have a web store that is outdated even buy 2014 standards.  That said, if it were to be found out that they did do such a thing, I wouldn't be all that surprised either.  The pressure on WOWS execs to maintain revenue, despite the self inflicted wounds of the last 2 years, is probably unrelenting....

If such a thing can happen at VW group on a much larger scale... it certainly can happen at WG.

[Arcus_Aesopi]

The expected value of 20 Mega crates is 3.2 ships (or steel-equivalent) and 2500 Doubloons (The rest don't matter as much as it restocks supplies).

That is pretty much what happens over time in my experience.

If you whale, the question is how many 20-packs does it take to get ALL the ships at that rate...  If you can't afford it... don't do it.  Most any result that doesn't include what you want will be a disappointment.

If you happen to have been around long enough and spent enough, it isn't difficult to stay "even" with "ALL".  WG made about 20 crates available for just playing (premium) this season.  I needed 14 ships for "all" so it was 3 extra 20 packs for me and I bought out the first round of progressive silliness which I think was more $ than a 20 pack... but I don't keep track or calculate to that level.

The issue for me is that the game is NOT getting more "fun".  The wildly ridiculous ships (Kitakami, U4501, guided missles, etc), lack of player agency in choosing battle type (Standard battles in Co-op are almost a guaranteed no-progress situation for most missions) and the progressive UN-balancing of game-play are contributing to making the entertainment "value" less interesting.

Some correction is necessary to make it worthwhile for me to continue to maintain the spending WG needs.  One of my game goals is 500 ships (Tier 5+ and Premiums if not) in port.  I'm at 477.  IF I play at all past that, FTP may be the new mode.

I'm not angry about it... it is what it is.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Arcusaesopi

[Ensign Cthulhu]

2 hours ago, Arcusaesopi said:

guided missles, etc

Show me which ships in the game have guided missiles that actually function as such. (If you meant to say "homing torpedoes", let me know so we can agree to differ.)

2 hours ago, Arcusaesopi said:

Standard battles in Co-op are almost a guaranteed no-progress situation for most missions

I find it difficult to agree with this. Sure, you're unlikely to get any cap-related ribbons unless you're playing T5 with a bunch of newbs whose front collapses and endangers the green base, but I don't see what else it blocks. 

2 hours ago, Arcusaesopi said:

If you whale, the question is how many 20-packs does it take to get ALL the ships at that rate...

Far more than I am willing to put in, and I say that as someone who can afford to actually do it. 

2 hours ago, Arcusaesopi said:

IF I play at all past that, FTP may be the new mode.

Nothing wrong with that. I was FTP for the first 9 months, and when my premium time runs out in not quite two years I'm going to have a decision to make. But right now the game is still fun for me; and if it's still fun when the PT runs out, I'll buy more. 

[Arcus_Aesopi]

1 minute ago, Ensign Cthulhu said:

Show me which ships in the game have guided missiles that actually function as such. (If you meant to say "homing torpedoes", let me know so we can agree to differ.)

I find it difficult to agree with this. Sure, you're unlikely to get any cap-related ribbons unless you're playing T5 with a bunch of newbs whose front collapses and endangers the green base, but I don't see what else it blocks. 

Far more than I am willing to put in, and I say that as someone who can afford to actually do it. 

Nothing wrong with that. I was FTP for the first 9 months, and when my premium time runs out in not quite two years I'm going to have a decision to make. But right now the game is still fun for me; and if it's still fun when the PT runs out, I'll buy more. 

Homing torps... correct.

Base xp, xp and anything related are heavily influenced by the number of cap zones available as is damage and "hits" of various types partly due to the dispersion of the red boats.  If the bots play "run away" which WG says they're trying to fix, you're much better off in a non standard battle for almost all battle types if terrain doesn't screw you (also better off than in the reward zone parachute thing whatever it's called).  The penalty for many ships is extreme for standard battle if they can't keep up with the fast moving and fast shooting torp and yolo boats.  The problem is WG (or any gaming company) forcing players to use one's personal game time to play through unwanted games.  This is both rude and disrespectful toward their customers imho. 

Spending keeps the pixels moving as long as one can afford it.

It's all about the fun.

 

[Ensign Cthulhu]

28 minutes ago, Arcusaesopi said:

The problem is WG (or any gaming company) forcing players to use one's personal game time to play through unwanted games. 

To put it bluntly, this is not a profitable hill for you to die on. Not having things all your way all the time is part and parcel of gaming, especially combat gaming.

33 minutes ago, Arcusaesopi said:

This is both rude and disrespectful toward their customers imho. 

Oh please. You can make the best of a bad lot and move on or you can put more effort into complaining than you do playing the game. I would advise against leaning too heavily into the latter.