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iDuckman

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  • 2 weeks later...

China and Tawain, one question has ever been a naval power, has China ever beaten a naval power no, China has always been a land locked power the only way to invade Taiwan is for it to cease to be an island. 

Option a China swamps Taiwan with aircraft and missiles and ships, China simple soaks up all the missiles and torpedoes Taiwan can throw at her fleet.  A swarm style attack in which China is willing to take any losses it has to landing enough soldiers to swamped Tawain with men. 

The Us might not be willing to invade Tawain to throw out China.  How could they do this without alerting Tawain's allies.  A disguised force using civilian ships and aircraft.  The question if China took Tawain and set a million soldiers on her would the USA be willing to try and take her back.

Edited by kriegerfaust
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On 12/23/2023 at 8:22 AM, Snargfargle said:
On 12/23/2023 at 8:18 AM, iDuckman said:

China thinks long term

I just read an article that noted that China didn't really have to invade Taiwan if they were playing the long game, they just needed to invest in it so heavily that eventually the Taiwanese would vote to be a semi-independent region of China, much like Hong Kong is.

If you are Chinese you'll already realize the chance is thin.

In reality most people have accused the gov of wasting money doing so (personally I also hold this opinion), since every penny went there does nothing on the political perspective (in this case it's make Taiwan change it's mind).

The economy of China mainland isn't doing well these years, people are getting less wages due to all the matters stacking together, how will they think of the 'investment' to Taiwan that gets little to no gain? Many people in Taiwan barely knows that it's the mainland buying their products in bulks. Invest them to any other place on earth is more likely to bring significant profit...

Plus people aren't getting too much from the start because China is still a developing country.

The clash between two regions is a complicated matter and can't be explained by just a few sentences. But everyone should be clear that the division between the two regions is because the civil war started in 1946 is still unfinished, lefting to governments claiming certain regions of China and in most time not admitting the legality of each other.

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On 12/23/2023 at 8:10 AM, Snargfargle said:

they would find themselves at war not only with the US but with our closest area allies, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and likely India and the Philippines too, plus probably most of the British Commonwealth, the Dutch, French and anyone else with interests in Eastern Asia. Most of these countries have close manufacturing ties to Taiwan and don't want it controlled by the Chinese Communist Party. Not to mention that it would be seen as an expansionist move that probably wouldn't stop there.

Firstly you should know that any kind of hot war between the two would be deadly not just for the two countries, but also the vast APAC area or even the whole planet.

Secondly I really don't think any other countries wants to be involved in this matter, putting themselves into war with nothing to get. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine hasn't ended yet, do you see any other country gets directly involved? People don't want to step into armed conflicts as long as it's not invading their own land.

I won't blame others for not knowing the history regarding the matter but if you want to make comments at least do some basic research. If I told you during 1950s and 1960s the kuomingtang gov in Taiwan wants to 'fight back to mainland' (they still own some costal areas during early 1950s, now the Kinmen Island, on the coast of Fujian still nominally belongs to them.) only giving up after they realize it's impossible? Will you call that expansionist behavior?

The photo below was taken in 1945, when Taiwan is liberated from the Japanese (臺灣光復), the circled word is “中國” or China in English.

(Chinese were written from right to left at that time.)

20221013_233645.jpg.0bf19ac09a0bab4a650ba2fd7422ffb7.jpg

Edited by New_Jersey_prpr
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3 hours ago, New_Jersey_prpr said:

If you are Chinese you'll already realize the chance is thin.

The Chinese people may, but does Xi, who has been promising that for a long time, and is spending a fortune on the capability to do it? 

 

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There has just been a major purge of the Chinese officer corps due to corruption. It's so bad that many military analysts think that China is actually completely incapable of waging a successful war at this time. The corrupt officers were doing things like filling ICBM missile fuel tanks with water and then selling the actual fuel.

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-corruption-rocket-force-water-fuel-xi-jinping-purge-scandal-2024-1?op=1

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37 minutes ago, DDG44_Vet said:

Hopefully they got all the launchers and remaining rounds in the warehouses and magazines so this quiets down for a while. 

Giving credit to US Military equipment & personnel, I imagine the intended targets were hit.
Whether or not those were "all" of the assets which the Houthi could use to perform attacks remains to be seen, I feel.

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9 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

There has just been a major purge of the Chinese officer corps due to corruption. It's so bad that many military analysts think that China is actually completely incapable of waging a successful war at this time. The corrupt officers were doing things like filling ICBM missile fuel tanks with water and then selling the actual fuel.

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-corruption-rocket-force-water-fuel-xi-jinping-purge-scandal-2024-1?op=1

Wow.  Just, wow.

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Is there a mess at home?  Perfect time for a war. 

The purge seems largely to be confined to the Rocket Force, and the reports of "filling the rockets with water" are obviously bogus -- liquid fueled rockets don't work that way; they're designed to be fueled only before test or use since the fuel is toxic and highly corrosive.  On parade or transport or at normal rest they are empty.  The reports of using solid fuel for cooking and home heating are much more credible given the low pay of the troops.

Still, there's something going on, and if Xi succeeds in cleaning out the corruption, it does not redound in our favor.

 

Edited by iDuckman
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31 minutes ago, iDuckman said:

liquid fueled rockets don't work that way; they're designed to be fueled only before test or use

There are petroleum-fueled rockets. In fact, for years the US used a Russian-designed, petroleum-fueled rocket engine on its Atlas rockets. The LOX component will be loaded on demand but the RP-1 component could be stored in the on-board tanks for a quicker launch capability.

"RP-1 (refined petroleum-1) is a fuel in the first-stage boosters of the Electron, Soyuz, Zenit, Delta I-III, Atlas, Falcon, Antares, and Tronador II rockets. It also powered the first stages of the Energia, Titan I, Saturn I and IB, and Saturn V. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) is also developing an RP-1 fueled engine for its future rockets."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RP-1

 

However, what's more likely is that the petroleum rocket fuel would be sold on the black market for heating oil and the launch site's fuel storage tanks then filled with water to "float" a layer of petroleum fuel at the top so that the inspectors wouldn't easily find out about the loss. I'd love to have a big tank of RP-1 as I've got a kerosene shop heater and RP-1 is pretty much highly refined kerosene.

Edited by Snargfargle
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Latest news is that Chinese Air Force soldiers used missile fuel to cook their food. Of course, rumor has it that Australian Army soldiers used up several of their CO2 fire extinguishers once to chill their beer too. Having served with some Aussies, I can see this happening. One can't expect an Aussie to drink warm beer in the summertime.

Edited by Snargfargle
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20 minutes ago, Snargfargle said:

One can't expect an Aussie to drink warm beer in the summertime.

And I thought Aussies were tough.

Advice:  Never seriously try to drink with an Aussie.  Seriously.

 

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10 hours ago, Snargfargle said:

There are petroleum-fueled rockets. In fact, for years the US used a Russian-designed, petroleum-fueled rocket engine on its Atlas rockets. The LOX component will be loaded on demand but the RP-1 component could be stored in the on-board tanks for a quicker launch capability.

"RP-1 (refined petroleum-1) is a fuel in the first-stage boosters of the Electron, Soyuz, Zenit, Delta I-III, Atlas, Falcon, Antares, and Tronador II rockets. It also powered the first stages of the Energia, Titan I, Saturn I and IB, and Saturn V. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) is also developing an RP-1 fueled engine for its future rockets."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RP-1

 

However, what's more likely is that the petroleum rocket fuel would be sold on the black market for heating oil and the launch site's fuel storage tanks then filled with water to "float" a layer of petroleum fuel at the top so that the inspectors wouldn't easily find out about the loss. I'd love to have a big tank of RP-1 as I've got a kerosene shop heater and RP-1 is pretty much highly refined kerosene.

I'm guessing that method (layering water & fuel in the storage tank) might work for a little while.  
But proper measuring methods, with "water sensitive paste" or similar product attached to a plumb-line measuring tape would reveal the presence of water in the storage tank.  If the situation was properly investigated, perhaps?

I worked on a "tank farm" in my past, and we handled aviation fuel and heating oil.  Measuring the levels of fuel within the tanks was a daily chore, and checking for water contamination was part of the process.
But, if the personnel were corrupted?  Shenannigans might ensue, of course.  Like failure to perform the measurement and contamination checks and/or falsifying the record-keeping.  🤔

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On 1/13/2024 at 5:09 PM, Wolfswetpaws said:

Giving credit to US Military equipment & personnel, I imagine the intended targets were hit.
Whether or not those were "all" of the assets which the Houthi could use to perform attacks remains to be seen, I feel.

Looks like some follow up strikes are necessary. https://news.usni.org/2024/01/15/houthi-missile-hits-u-s-merchant-ship-in-red-sea

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5 hours ago, iDuckman said:

In Proceedings assays of a peer-to-peer conflict in 2026, a red flag is raised on the depth of smart weapon stocks.  Maybe this will goad some action.

 

If I infer correctly from your post, one of the concerns is that using expensive missiles to fight opponents who are using less-expensive munitions results in the expensive-munition-using-nation running out of cash sooner?

Which provides the lower-tech & lower-budget nation with an opportunity to claim a "victory" of sorts if they succeed in getting the higher-tech nation to leave the battlefield due to a lack of supplies, perhaps?

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4 hours ago, Wolfswetpaws said:

If I infer correctly from your post, one of the concerns is that using expensive missiles to fight opponents who are using less-expensive munitions results in the expensive-munition-using-nation running out of cash sooner?

Which provides the lower-tech & lower-budget nation with an opportunity to claim a "victory" of sorts if they succeed in getting the higher-tech nation to leave the battlefield due to a lack of supplies, perhaps?

This is part of the problem @Wolfswetpaws, earlier this month at the annual surface forces symposium the head of naval surface forces addressed it, venting his frustration at the lack of laser weapons deployed on r ships despite their availability. https://news.usni.org/2024/01/09/new-swoboss-wants-more-directed-energy-weapons-on-warships-as-low-cost-threats-expand. In this same article the head of naval acquisition addresses the push to have industry ramp up production of missiles but I haven’t read anything positive about it since. Given other public news announcements that we r selling Japan 400 TLAMS and that the army is fielding mobile TLAM and SM-6 launchers to the Pacific; I have to hope that the likes of Rathyeon and Lockheed Martin r running 3 shifts but would feel better knowing it was actually happening. 

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